Well, maybe not... but perhaps. If roleplaying needs saving.
First of all, before I proceed, I'd like to point out that I'm now back on track. Perceptive readers have probably noticed that I've been one day behind on my countdown the last couple of days. I blame a couple of stessed out days at work, but as of this post, I'm back on track.
Now, where was I? Yes, I was about to talk about that DnD4 could save roleplaying as we know it. Actually, I wasn't... but I am about to present my own opinions on what the effects of DnD4 will be. I've heard a number of different scenarios, and I have some opinions on them that I thought I'd share.
From what I've come to understand, WotC hopes that DnD4 will bring back a lot of "lost gamers". One of their means is their online system, another is a shorter setup-time. From what I've seen, it should be possible to make characters and start gaming in one session. I guess that they might succeed with this in some degree. I've seen a couple of posts on rpg.net from guys talking about that they havn't gamed for the last 10 years or so, but this 4th ed sounds interesting and they want to know more about it. With that said, I don't think it will be a massive return of the prodigal sons. As for the online tools, while I like them and probably will be paying for them, I guess the price tag is a bit to steep for someone just returning to gaming.
As a counter-theory to the above, some people believe that DnD4 will drive a lot of players to other gaming systems. This can be compared to a sudden increas in Apple Mac sales when Windows Vista was released.
There is, however, a flaw in this theory. If you are happy playing 3.5 and don't like 4.0, you still have a huge amount of books available to you. Games, as opposed to computers, don't grow old. You will be able to play 3.5 in 20 years from now if you want to. There is nothing forcing gamers away from a particular system just because the publisher has gone with a new edition.
Another problem with that theory is that there is no where else to go.
Now, before you get all upset: I know that there are a huge amount of games out there. I own a great deal of them myself. From what I've come to understand, there is a large population of DnD-gamers that equates RPG's with DnD. They are the ones that perhaps heard of Vampire or Rifts, but that's about it. This is especially true if you consider that apart from DnD there isn't any well known straight up fantasy RPG's out there. Yes, I know... there's Castles and Crusades, True20, HARP, Rolemaster, Exalted etc etc etc. To that, I still believe that many DnD-gamers don't know about these games. Perhaps Exalted, but I'd be hard pressed to consider that a ordinary fantasy game. So, as opposed to the guys switching to Mac or Linux, there is basically no option for the average gamer-Joe. His options are 3.5 or 4.0.
So, will DnD4 save the industry, or be a total fiasko and drag WotC and the rest of the rpg industry down with it?
I'm guessing neither. I'm totally convinced that 4th ed will sell, and sell good. At least the first core books. This will in all probability be good news for the rest of the RPG industry, since sales generate sales. I listened to an interview with Luke Crane (of Burning Wheels), and his experience was that when DnD sells well, other rpg's get higher sales as well. So, in the short term, I think DnD4 will boost the sales of other games as well, thus helping the industry slightly.
In the long run, however, I don't think there's any specific game that will "save the industry". I'll go out on a limb here and say that the problem isn't the games as much as it is us gamers. It's up to us to invite collegues or friends to try out new games. No game will change that in the long term run. I believe Vampire did bring in some fresh blood to the gaming community, as did 3.0 when it arrived, but other than that, I think that most games are bought by gamers, not by newbies. The only way to have more gamers in the community is to invite them and not to hope that they will show up anyway.
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